1. Resin Yield Projections by Grade
| Grade | Resin Content (% of wood weight) | Expected Yield (kg/ha/year) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chips / small resin | 5–15% | 50–150 kg/ha | Often leftover or lower-density wood |
| Incense grade | 10–20% | 100–200 kg/ha | Moderate aroma; suitable for burning |
| Sinking grade | 20–35% | 200–350 kg/ha | Premium resin for oil or incense |
| Super grade | 30–50%+ | 300–500+ kg/ha | Luxury resin for perfumery and high-end markets |
Note: Yield depends on species, age, induction method, and tree health. Multiple inoculation points can increase resin output.
2. Oil Yield Projections
| Grade | Oil Yield (% v/w of resinous wood) | Expected Oil per Hectare | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chips | 0.5–1% | 0.25–1.5 L/ha | Lower quality, small-scale extraction |
| Incense grade | 1–2% | 1–4 L/ha | Moderate quality for incense or perfumery |
| Sinking grade | 3–5% | 6–17 L/ha | High-quality oil, suitable for luxury products |
| Super grade | 5–10% | 15–50+ L/ha | Premium, high-value oil; ideal for CO₂ extraction |
Extraction method matters: Steam distillation gives lower yield than supercritical CO₂, which can improve both purity and volume.
3. Revenue Estimates
Assuming average market prices:
| Product | Price (USD/kg or L) | Potential Revenue / ha |
|---|---|---|
| Chips / lower resin | $100–200/kg | $5,000–30,000 |
| Incense grade | $250–400/kg | $25,000–80,000 |
| Sinking grade | $400–700/kg | $80,000–245,000 |
| Super grade | $1,000–2,500/kg | $300,000–1,250,000 |
| Essential oil (steam) | $1,000–2,000/L | $1,000–100,000 depending on yield |
| Essential oil (CO₂, premium) | $5,000–10,000/L | $75,000–500,000+ |
Prices are highly variable, depending on grade, country, and buyer.
4. Cost vs Revenue & ROI
Assuming 1 ha of sinking grade agarwood with total startup cost ~$25,000–30,000 and annual OPEX ~$10,000:
- Revenue estimate:
- Resin yield: 250 kg × $500/kg = $125,000
- Oil yield: 10 L × $5,000/L = $50,000 (if CO₂ extraction used)
- Total potential annual revenue: $125,000–$175,000
- Annual profit:
- Revenue – OPEX = $125,000 – $10,000 = $115,000/year
- Return on Investment (ROI):
[
ROI (%) = \frac{\text{Annual Profit}}{\text{Startup + OPEX}} \times 100
]- Using $25,000 startup + $10,000 OPEX = $35,000
- ROI ≈ $115,000 / $35,000 × 100 ≈ 328%
ROI depends heavily on grade, resin yield, extraction method, and market price.
5. Breakeven Period
- Breakeven (in years) = Total Startup Cost ÷ Annual Profit
- Example: $25,000 startup / $115,000 profit ≈ 0.22 years (~3 months)
- For more conservative scenarios (lower-grade resin or smaller yield):
- Annual profit $25,000 → breakeven ≈ 1 year
- Key factors affecting breakeven:
- Time to resin formation (12–36 months post-inoculation)
- Induction efficiency (dual-action inoculants, mechanical + fungal)
- Extraction method (CO₂ vs steam)
- Market fluctuations
6. Recommendations for Maximizing ROI
- Use dual-action or fungal + mechanical induction to accelerate resin formation.
- Prioritize sinking or super-grade trees for premium oil production.
- Consider CO₂ extraction for high-value oil markets.
- Implement proper drying, curing, and chip grading to maximize price.
- Stagger inoculations for continuous revenue streams rather than a single harvest.