7.1 Risk Assessment for Traders and Investors

Purpose: To provide a structured approach for identifying, evaluating, and mitigating risks associated with agarwood and other high-value plant trade for both traders and investors.


A. Types of Risks

  1. Regulatory and Legal Risks:
    • Non-compliance with CITES permits, source codes, and NDF requirements
    • Violations of national laws, administrative orders, or trade quotas
    • Risk of fines, seizures, or trade suspension
  2. Operational Risks:
    • Inaccurate chain-of-custody records or traceability gaps
    • Mislabeling of species, product forms, or quantities
    • Processing, storage, or shipment errors
  3. Market and Financial Risks:
    • Price volatility for agarwood products
    • Counterparty defaults or unreliable buyers
    • Currency fluctuations affecting international trade
  4. Reputation and ESG Risks:
    • Negative publicity from illegal or unsustainable trade
    • Failure to meet environmental, social, or governance standards
    • Loss of investor confidence or market access

B. Risk Evaluation

  • Assess likelihood and impact of each risk category
  • Prioritize risks based on potential financial, legal, and reputational consequences
  • Use data from traceability systems, audit trails, and market analysis

C. Risk Mitigation Strategies

  1. Regulatory Compliance:
    • Ensure permits, certificates, NDFs, and quotas are current and accurate
    • Maintain robust chain-of-custody and traceability systems
  2. Operational Controls:
    • Implement digital record-keeping and auditing procedures
    • Train staff on compliance, documentation, and quality control
  3. Financial and Market Measures:
    • Diversify buyers and markets
    • Use contracts with clear terms and dispute resolution mechanisms
    • Monitor price trends and hedge currency risks where applicable
  4. Reputation Management:
    • Adopt ESG-aligned practices
    • Promote transparent sourcing and sustainability certifications
    • Engage with stakeholders, authorities, and the public proactively

D. Practical Recommendations

  • Conduct regular risk assessments at farm, processing, and trade levels
  • Integrate risk management with traceability, audit trails, and compliance reporting
  • Maintain incident logs and response protocols for non-compliance or market issues
  • Review and update risk mitigation plans based on evolving regulations and market conditions

Learning Outputs

  • Understanding of key regulatory, operational, financial, and reputational risks
  • Ability to evaluate and prioritize risks for traders and investors
  • Knowledge of mitigation strategies and integration with compliance systems
  • Skills to implement proactive risk management for sustainable and legal trade